There has been a lot of talk recently about a potential move of the U.S. against Iran. The oil-consiracy theorists swear that it unavoidable, for example. There are even rumours of a nuclear attack by the US.
I had believed back in 2003 that it would happen right away.
My logic? A vision of Bush playing Risk, with a bunch of his chips/armies stacked in Iraq, ready to sweep half of it to Iran or Syria, two trouble zones... too bad he didn't have his lucky die.
Well, it didn't happen back then. Truth is, I guess, he didn't have enough chips for to hold Iraq anyway.
But now, Iran has been giving so much troubles with its new crackpot president, threatening to wipe Israel off the map, and financing terrorists and uprisings in Iraq. Could it happen?
Personally, I do not think so. I used the same logic to argue against a US intervention in North Korea a few years back. The problem is that Iran has won. They now have or are about to have nuclear weapons.
There is a very high aversion for casualties in the US, and the government cannot afford to take a chance with a country possessing nuclear weapons. North Korea's crazy dictator is even worse then Iran's and yet the US hasn't done anything except hold negotiations for a few years.
Comments